Development Economics
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Development Economics
Chapter 1
This chapter focuses on the reasons behind the variations in the standards of living between nations, as well as why countries become richer or fail to grow richer over time. Gross domestic product (GDP) is used to quantify a country’s income. Using GDP poses a number of issues, such as differences in currencies between different countries, fluctuations in price levels, and differences in population sizes. Other measures, such as national income, can also be used to measure a country’s wealth. The rate of growth of a country’s per capita income has an effect on a country’s standards of living. The chapter compares growth of various countries over long periods of time. Growth, which is a long-run phenomenon, should be differentiated from business cycles, which can be defined as the fluctuations in economic conditions. Differences in average rates of growth between countries translate into differences in the countries’ relative income levels over time. The overall global world inequality in income is attributed to differences between and within countries. This inequality is measured by the mean logarithmic deviation. At present, inequality between countries is the most important source of inequality in the world. There has been a substantial drop in world inequality in the last two decades. Much of this improvement was as a result of a decline in the equality between countries, with a slight variation in the average level of within-country inequality. The differences in growth rates between countries contribute to the increase in income gaps between rich and poor countries. The level of inequality has an effect on the environment, health and developments in international relations.
Chapter 2
This chapter explains how differences in income between countries are determined using the parable of Freedonia and Sylvania. This parable reveals several themes central to the approach of establishing the source of these differences. The parable shows that differences in productivity between countries can be broken down, partly because of differences in efficiency, and partly due to differences in technology. Additionally, per capita income variances between countries can be decomposed into two parts, one characteristic of the accumulation of inputs to production, and the other elemental to the productivity with which those factors are utilized. The parable also exemplifies that, besides an investigation of the elements that are accountable for differences in income, namely technology, accumulation of factors of production and efficiency, a comprehensive knowledge of economic growth necessitates a consideration of the key factors that dictate the immediate causes. The production function is used to show the link between production factors and the level of actual production. This approach is key to expressing the degree to which variances in accumulation of factors of production result in income differences among nations, as well as the degree to which differences in the production function itself brings about differences in income.
The chapter also outlines various uses of data in economics. Data can be used in testing economic concepts such as supply and demand, and quantitative analysis. However, this data is objective, observational and is not always accurate. This necessitates the use of scatter plots. Scatter plots facilitate study of the general relationship between two variables, which is measured by the correlation coefficient. They also help in identifying those relationships that are consistent with the overall observation, as well as outliers.
Chapter 3
This chapter focuses on the effect of capital on the income gap between countries. It provides a capital-based model on the differences in income levels between nations. Primarily, the theory considers five characteristics of capital, namely, it is produced through investments, it is productive, it can earn a return, it is limited and it depreciates. Capital plays a vital role in production. Supposing there are only two inputs into the production process, labor and capital, a production function to represent their relationship can be written as Y =F (K, L), where K represents capital, L represents labor and Y represents output. Two assumptions are made of this production function. First, the production function is assumed to have constant returns to scale. Secondly, the production function is assumed to display diminishing returns marginal product.
INCLUDEPICTURE “http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/d/df/Total%2C_Average%2C_and_Marginal_Product.gif” * MERGEFORMATINET
The diagram above shows total, average and marginal product. The first graph shows output plotted against factors of production, in this case, labor. From the graph, it is apparent that as inputs into the production process are increased, output continues to increase up to a certain point where further increase in factors of production leads to a decrease in output. This is called diminishing returns to scale.
The chapter introduces a Cobb-Douglas production function, a functional form of the production function, written as F (K, L) = AKαL1-α. In this case, A denotes a measure of productivity, while α is a parameter that dictates how labor and capital combine to produce output. The parameter is determined by evaluating capital’s share of national income. In the chapter, a Solow model is used to depict the role of capital in analyzing the per capita income differences among countries.
Chapter 4
This chapter discusses the effect of population growth on economic growth, as well how to determine population growth. The effect of population on economic growth is analyzed using the Malthusian and Solow models. These two models have three key differences. First, while the Solow model dwells on the impact of growth in population on the level of income, the Malthusian model focuses on the effect of population size on the income level. Second, where the Solow model considers the rate of growth of the population as exogenous, in the Malthusian model, population and income are determined endogenously. Lastly, the Solow model concentrates on the relationship between capital and population, while the Malthusian model concentrates on the relationship between population and natural resources, such as land. The determinants of population growth were examined using the Solow and Malthusian models.
From the analysis, it is evident that population is in a rapid flux. While the decline in both fertility and mortality that accompany economic growth took almost a century in developed nations, the same is taking place a significantly accelerated rate in the developing countries.
Chapter 5
From this chapter, it is apparent that demographic forces function slowly, but relentlessly. One can confidently forecast that, a number of years into the future, the changes in the global demographics would be so significant that one cannot gain confidence in more standard economic projections. For instance, one can be certain that the global population will grow, there will be a decline in the rate of growth of the global population, there will be a shift of the balance of the world population away from the presently developed nations, and the population of the developed countries will age considerably. Looking further into the future paints a foggy picture of the demographic future. This uncertainty is mainly associated with fertility. It is unclear whether fertility in the developed countries will increase to the replacement level, or whether fertility in the poor countries will drop to the replacement level.
The situation of the world economy hinges on these two factors. As a result of the forecasted changes in population, economic growth will be affected both positively and negatively. Sluggish growth in the population will shrink the need to create new capital to new players in the workforce, thus providing a boost to the economy. Most of the developed countries will experience an upsurge in the proportion of the population composed of senior citizens. Consequently, there will be a decline in the percentage of the population composed of working-age citizens.
On account of the aging population, the rate of growth of per capita income will reduce. On the other hand, the population of countries that have reduced fertility in recent times is growing in an economically constructive manner. The proportion composed of working-age people is increasing, while the part of the population that is made up of children is reducing. Demographic momentum will warrant that, among the poorest nations, population remains on a rapid increase, even under the postulation that the rate of fertility will decrease considerably. The constructive effects of low rate of population growth in these countries, as well as the comparatively smaller proportion of the population composed of people under the working age bracket, are still a number of years into the future. Over the next decades, these nations will experience a significant increase in the size of their populations, which may reduce the quantity of natural resources available per capita, and thereby affecting economic growth.
Discussion
Growth in the economy can be defined as an increase in the living standards of the citizens of a country over time. This growth is usually evaluated as the change in per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This is a measure of all the goods and services produced in a given country in one year. It can be calculated either as the total income, such as rents, wages, profits and interests, earned in a country, or equivalently as the value of the output produced in the country. Economic growth has been uneven, both across time, and countries. Increase in the differences in inter-country income distribution slowed down throughout the last half of the twentieth century among a group of nations. Conversely, the income gap between the poorest and richest nations has continued to widen.
The increasing divergence of the poor nations from the rest of the world does not infer increase in income inequality among the world’s population. Economists typically use data on within-country income distributions when explaining the world inequality. This is attributable to the fact that most of the factors on which economic growth hinges vary across countries, as opposed to across individuals within countries.
Growth theory seeks to explain the variation in the standards of living across time and countries. The sources of growth can be considered in terms of a production function. This function shows the relationship between output per worker, y, and the stocks of human, physical and natural capital, k. The production function is written as y = f (k, A), where A is a productivity parameter. Growth of the economy, which is estimated by the degree of increase of y, relies on the rate of growth of productivity, besides the rate of capital accumulation. Consequently, differences in countries’ levels of GDP per capita can be either as a result of differences in productivity or differences in capital.
The neoclassical Solow model shows that, in the long run, capital accumulation cannot sustain economic growth. In this model, the diminishing marginal product of capital will constantly terminate any momentary growth burst over and above the rate of advancement of labor-enhancing productivity. Conversely, this construal has been challenged by the recent endogenous growth theory. Productivity growth is dependent on capital growth, through technology spillovers and learning, such that increase in investment levels in physical capital has the capacity to sustain a perpetual increase in growth in productivity, and consequently, in the rate of economic growth.
Physical capital is composed of machines, tools, buildings and infrastructure such as ports and roads. Physical capital is produced through investment and is used to produce output. It differs from technology in that is limited, which makes it rival in its use. There are significant differences in physical capital between poor and rich countries. In a proximate sense, these differences in levels of physical capital are precise contributors to differences in income among countries. The degree of this proximate effect can be measures using the production function. Inter-country differences in physical capital can be as a result of various factors. Differences in investment in physical capital are relative to output. In a closed economy, the rate of investment equals the rate of national saving. This rate of saving can differ between countries as a result of differences in the security of property rights. This is attributable to the accessibility of apposite financial systems that bring together investors and savers, government policies such as old age pensions and budget deficits, cultural attitudes towards future versus present consumption, or because deferring consumption to the future is a luxury that underprivileged people cannot afford.
The relative price of capital also causes differences in investment rates between countries. The price of physical capital, relative to consumption goods, is thrice as high in developing countries as in the developed world. However, the rate of growth of capital among countries can also differ due to reasons that are not related to the rate of capital accumulation. Differences in productivity, which is denoted by A in the production function, produce different capital levels even in nations with similar rates of capital investment. Likewise, variations in the rate of growth of other factors of production lead to variations in the level of capital for worker.
Differences in human capital can also cause differences in living standards between countries. Human capital includes all those factors that allow a worker to be productive, such as education and health. Human capital is a product of past investment and can earn a return for its owner, just like physical capital. The key difference between human capital and physical capital is that human capital is installed in people. This creates a challenge for one person to completely own and control human capital that is used by another person.
Natural capital, on the other hand, represents the value of a nation’s forests, subsoil resources and agricultural and pasture lands. Like the previous forms of capital, natural capital is also used in the production of goods and services, but is not itself produced. There exists a direct, positive correlation between GDP per worker and natural capital per worker. However, this relationship is weaker than that of other forms of capital. Many resource-rich countries often have a poor economic performance, a situation called a resource curse. This merely implies the situation whereby the accessibility of natural capital undercuts the accumulation of other forms of capital, thereby reducing productivity. Availability of natural capital causes countries to increase consumption to untenable levels, which depresses saving and investment.
The decision to accumulate capital can be either a private one, or one made by the government. In either scenario, the creation of capital is in itself an act of investment, which, in turn, has to relate to an act of saving. From the production function, two assumptions, one of constant returns to scale and the other of diminishing marginal product, can be made. It is these assumptions that necessitate the use of a Cobb-Douglass production function.
Another significant determinant of the differences in living standards between countries is population. It has a considerable impact on the accumulation of capital, and consequently, on the level of output per worker. Rapid growth in population reduces the amount of human and physical capital per worker, increasing investment rates and expenditure on human capital necessary to maintain output per worker. With a fixed stock of natural capital, increase in population size reduces output per capita. However, as a result of the present resource-saving technological advancements, along with the growth in international trade, which enables countries to dodge resource constraints, the relationship between natural capital and population growth is not as significant in trying to explain the differences in living standards and levels of income between countries, except for extremely poor nations that rely on subsistence agriculture.
Additionally, population also affects economic growth in the sense that changes in the demographic structure of a country lead to vital alterations in the age structure of the population. For instance, reduction in fertility leads to prolonged periods of reduced dependency. During this period, the ratio of the elderly and children, on one hand, to working-age adults, on the other, is, in the short term, below its viable steady state level.
INCLUDEPICTURE “http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/classes/econ302/alexander/Spring2006/SOLOW/SOLOWGROWTHMODEL_files/image005.gif” * MERGEFORMATINET
The above figure represents the steady-state level of capital. This can be defined as the level of capital at which depreciation and investment merely offset each other. From the above figure, if the stock of capital is not equal to the steady-state level, it will move to the equilibrium over time. If the amount of capital is below the steady-state level, it implies that the level of investment is higher than the level of depreciation, which will cause capital stock to grow. A level of capital stock above the steady-state level implies an excess of depreciation over investment, thus pushing the level of capital stock towards the steady-state level.
Besides, as countries advance in economic development, they, by and large, move through a demographic shift, in which first, mortality rates fall, followed by a decrease in fertility rates. The decrease in the rate of mortality can be viewed as the result of increased income and technological advancement. The reduction in fertility rate can be attributable to several factors, including a transition along a quality-quantity trade-off as a result of increasing returns to human capital, the reduced significance of children as a way of support during old age, falling mortality rate, the increase in women’s relative wages, and advancements in the availability of contraceptives.
The parable of Freedonia and Sylvania helps determine the factors responsible for economic growth by depicting how the relative significance of the various factors of production that bring about income differences among countries can be analyzed and weighed. From the parable, there are two factors that dictate whether a nation is rich or poor, namely the accumulation of factors of production and the efficiency with which the factors are used. The differences in productivity between nations can be broken down into two constituents, which are differences in efficiency and differences in technology. In this case, efficiency refers to institutions, economic organization and so forth, while technology refers to scientific progress, dissemination of knowledge and research and development. This parable can be used to scrutinize differences in economic growth between countries by considering the steady adjustment to an equilibrium level of output.
National income figures, especially GDP at factor cost, are usually used to compare standards of living between countries. However, caution should be exercised when using national income figures in this context. GDP should be used at constant prices, usually called real GDP, so as to eliminate the misleading effect of inflation. Additionally, differences in population sizes should also be taken into account. Countries with outsized populations are projected to produce more output than those with small populations. However, the output has to be divided among more individuals, thus lowering the standards of living.
Adjusting for population and population does not, however, make national income figures a perfect measure of living standards. A rise in real GDP per capita may be by means of an upsurge in production of capital goods. This will increase production in the long run, which will lead to increase in consumer goods. However, citizens of the country may not feel the immediate effect of the increase in capital goods in the short run. Another suitable example is the increase in weapons, which may lead to an increase in GDP, but may not essentially lead to an improvement in living standards. Economists, therefore, should consider not only the production of goods and services, but also the composition of those goods. Additionally, the quality of output should also be considered. A country may produce the same quantity of output every year, but if the quality of the output has improved, then living standards will have improved.
Income distribution should is also a factor that should be considered. National output may increase, but if it is not evenly distributed, the living standards of most people will not have improved. GDP may also not depict a precise picture due to non-declaration of items that have an impact on people’s lives, either because they are illegal or to avoid paying taxes. Increase in activities such as the provision of home-based solutions, or drug trafficking may improve the living standards of the people but will not be mirrored in official figures. Other factors that should be considered include changes in working hours and condition, and externalities and other non-marketed activities.